Current Poll Numbers | October 19, 2020 | Hour One
Here's your conservative, not bitter host, Todd Huff. That is right. You were listening to the home of conservative, not bitter talk here. We are just about what? Just a little over two weeks from election day. I know many of you may have already voted, as I've seen that there have been what is it 28 million people voted. According to current estimates, 28 million people may have voted already early. Incredible numbers as we move towards this very contentious election, which is again, just a couple of weeks away. It's good to be here. Thank you for thank you for joining us a little bit of delay this morning with our streaming as we are just not getting that up and running. There was a tech problem here. But anyway, it's a pleasure to be here. Thank you for joining us. So I want to start today. I want to start today with something that, you know, I think is on our minds quite regularly as people who follow follow politics. And that is taking a look at where well. I guess looking at where folks tell us the vote stands or the where public opinion stands on this issue of which candidate is going to win the election polling, I want to talk about that. And I want to go to something that I saw. I think I saw this either over the weekend, maybe even on Friday. This was in the epic times. The Epic times headline is this. We're not ahead by double digits. Biden campaign manager reportedly admits polls in flighted now, you and I assume this, in fact, I don't really even follow the polls that closely as we get closer, I do look, I do look. In fact, one of the groups that I look at is a group called the Trafalgar group. Trafalgar group is a meaner republican republican leaning pollster. But they were the most accurate pollster in both 2016 and 2018. And their methodology is a little bit, I guess, different. They are there's different ways, I guess that they are able to get people to share their true opinions. In fact, one of the things that this group does, one of the things that this group does is actually actually asks a question that says something like, Who are your neighbors supporting in the 2020? election? And it's interesting to see how how much that flips the the poles back, I think it was like a 10 point flip. And one of these things I was looking at where, basically what what that means is what people think that that means is that they are people are more likely to tell you the theory goes, who they think or who they're voting for by saying I think my name, I think my neighbor is supporting Trump. So basically, I think Trump is going to win effectively. But if you asked me if I'm voting for Trump, then I have a little bit more hesitation. There is a percentage of people who think this way this happened back in 2016. And this is the case today as well, where folks are afraid to tell a pollster who they're going to be voting for and look to a certain degree understandably so. understandably so. I mean, you look at what happens I saw, I don't know if you saw this, this poor woman who attended the I think it was the DC Women's March, which by the way, I'm waiting for the media to break out into an all out tizzy over the number of people who were attending the protest in Washington, DC over the weekend, violating social distancing requirements and that sort of thing. I don't know if there were enough masks. I don't know if there was anything like that. But anyway, this woman, a woman attends the rally, reportedly. And she has a Trump sign and she's been assaulted, she ends up in the hospital needing medical treatment from the side that undoubtedly was probably chanting. You know, love wins or some such thing. But anyway, when we look at these, when we look at the state of things, and we ask people or ask questions in polls, it's it's certainly understandable why they wouldn't tell a pollster who they're voting for. I'm sure some folks just won't have fun with it as well. I'm sure some folks are happy to have folks not know who they're voting for to mess with these with these polls. And it's to the point now, and then, of course, you get the issue of over sampling, how difficult is it to get a hold of Trump voters. And we have some, we have some polls that are showing in their sampling that they're they're sampling democrat voters, plus eight over Republicans, which would be a monumental. It would be so far from, from the norm from what a reasonable person would predict here in 2020, that that, of course skews these polls as well. And typically, you'll find these pollsters, as you get closer to the election, which would be now begin to correct their polls, but part of me is beginning to wonder, part of me is beginning to wonder if that's if that will not happen in 2020. And the reason I wonder that is because of all this stuff happening with with Malin balance, you see if the polls show Trump excuse me, Biden as the victor, the polls, not the actual voting booth, but the actual polls that are conducted. If the polls show that Biden is supposed to win this election by four, six, or eight or 10, or 12, or whatever points whenever these stupid polls are showing right now, and Trump comes out to win, then, of course, the media has has at his disposal the the go to the go to story, which is that Russia stole the election again, which is that Trump has interfered with the process of counting and tabulating votes, because we know, right, because of polling where people really wanted to do when they cast their ballots, but something prevented that from happening. It has to be Trump, it has to be the vote counters. Of course, people. You know, we have 51 elections, right, you know, on election night or not, whenever the election start with early voting and absentee voting, you have 51 independently run elections. 50 states plus Washington, DC. And so these elections are run by their respective states. That's why I told my joking By the way, if anyone's out there taking this too seriously, my I've got a someone close to me that's traveling, and they they voted a couple voted or plan to vote before they leave. And they're going to another state, the state of California, and I said you might be able to vote out there as well. And, and I said you might want to look into that. They don't even check your photo ID fact the person you're staying with is probably on that voter list more than once. Just go in there and the next day and tell them that you are that person I'm kidding is to illustrate the absurdity of voter ID laws in the state of California. But, you know, these polls and you begin to wonder, you begin to wonder if this is in fact not, not part of the strategy if Trump wins again in 2020. Would the media not begin to use the polling? The Democrat Party not use the polling to show that somehow President Trump stole votes from Joe Biden or some such thing but behind closed doors, they say this again, this is the article I'm referencing here. We're not ahead by double digits. Biden campaign manager reportedly admits polls are flighted. I want to read a bit of this article to you the Democratic presidential nominee. Joe Biden's campaign manager reportedly admitted that the national public polling numbers which show Biden overwhelmingly leading Trump are inflated. Please take the fact that we're not ahead by double digits Jen O'Malley Dillon reportedly said during a grassroots summit of the campaign on Friday, those are inflated national polls. public polling numbers the video the live of it seems to have been deleted. But her comments were posted on Twitter by New York Times reporter Shane gold mocker. The Biden campaign and Trump campaign didn't respond to requests for comments. This is not the only circumstance. Dillon cautioned about the leading position of Biden she reportedly said in a three page memo obtained by Fox News that Trump can still win, oh, boy, folks can still win the November election and the race is quote, neck and neck. in certain states like Arizona and North Carolina. The reality is that this race is far closer than some of the punditry we've, we're seeing on Twitter and on TV would suggest Dylan allegedly wrote in the memo, even the best polling can be wrong. And that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical swing states, we are not, we are fundamentally tied. And folks, that is where we really are this idea. Now I've been on on record is saying Of course this, of course Biden can win. Don't ask me to explain the logic of this. If I think the logic stops when you understand it's an emotion, the logical choice for choosing bhoga Joe Biden is not is not something I can articulate to you because it's an emotion, it's a feeling, I guess I can logically explain to you that there's so much hatred and vitriol that's stored up for President Trump that has been built up that has been fabricated by the media by the Democrat Party since 2016. That they are counting upon that anger, that rage, that bitterness, that rage, fury, all this stuff, these negative hatred, all these sorts of negative emotions, they have poured fuel on the fire. In fact, they're planning on ratcheting this up even even as we enter these last two weeks before election day. And so they've done everything they can to stir the pot, they've told us it really doesn't matter who the candidate is. This is the Biden campaign. In essence, it doesn't matter who Biden is this as long as he isn't Trump. If you look at people who are voting for Biden, I'm telling you, I'm gonna say seven times out of 10. I want to say nine times out of 10. But I'll say seven times out of 10. People tell us why they're voting for Biden and they'll use the word Trump. You ask the average Trump supporter, why they're voting for Trump and you don't hear that you might hear them eventually lead into how bad Biden is. You might hear them refer to Joe Biden as a and his family as the Biden crime family as Trump did in Nevada, excuse me in Nevada, as Trump says over the weekend, and you may hear a Trump supporter do that. But you won't hear that be their lead their lead argument as to why someone should vote for Donald J. Trump. In fact, they'll hear you'll hear things about how Donald Trump loves this nation, how Donald Trump is doing things that are in an individual American's best interests, how he is trying to return to how he's trying to drain the swamp, how he's trying to increase the Liberty decrease government. Let people keep more of their hard earned money instead of watching it go to this basically leaking sieve known as Washington DC and watch their money go to completely worthless and mismanaged projects and budgets and that sort of thing. You'll hear people talk about building the wall, you hear you hear people talk about how Trump gives his money, his his earnings as president to charity. You hear all sorts of things like this, you won't simply hear he's not Biden. You hear that from Biden supporters, when they talk about Donald J. Trump, you'll see parades of Trump vehicles driving down the street, almost regardless of where you live. This happens almost universally, in this nation now. almost happened that it's almost ubiquitous Trump parades. We've seen him in from Miami to I mean, you name the city there's been Trump parades, people putting flags on their trucks, Jeeps cars and driving, driving long distances. people sitting out on their on the sidewalk or on the front porch. cracking open a beer as the Trump parade goes by. And you see the energy you see the enthusiasm you feel this. You feel this but yet you look at the polls. The polls and you see Biden in his, in the Real Clear Politics averages up nine points on or some such thing. But behind closed doors you'll hear the Biden campaign as I just shared with you here in the epic times Jed O'Malley Dillon, she'll say we're not up double up double digits, please take the fact that we are not ahead by double digits. Those are inflated national public polling numbers. That's not reality. In fact, it's remarkable. You see, the either the, I don't know, the mismanagement of these polls, these incorrect assumptions, or maybe it's deliberate. Whether it's a deliberate attempt or whether it's a an unintentional attempt is kind of it doesn't matter at some point when you're just looking at the numbers. But this can actually come back and bite the Democrats, because some folks may think Biden has this in the back, who knows behind closed doors, they know, this is not the case, and they are telling their supporters, this is much, much closer than you, then you realize, you have to understand that this Trump could still win this thing. And to hear that from the campaign manager of Biden, just here, a mere two weeks from election day, after they've invested everything they've got, they are all in folks, they have put all their chips, on black on the roulette wheel they have, that thing is spinning, the ball is bouncing around, they're all in, they've put their mortgage, they've put their wife's wedding ring, they've put it all everything in the 401k. It's all on black here as they're picking, as they're trying to go with Joe Biden. But the truth is, the odds that they're winning are much closer to those of Roulette than they are of what the polls are telling us or what 538 is telling us in their predictions and in their modeling, and so forth. So, gotta take a timeout, you're listening here to the home of concern, we'll continue this one we'll get back. Shouldn't conservative, not bitter talk. I'm your host, Todd Huff back in back in just a minute.
Welcome back. So I want to do something. And I know this may be a little bit challenging over the radio. So but you know, that the president is elected, according to electoral votes. In fact, I watch a pretty good little documentary, I guess you would call it on the electoral college over the week. And that was really, really well done. The importance of the electoral college why it is, you know, why it matters, why it is the way that it is that sort of thing. And there's a lot of great reasons, a lot of great reasons, even some reasons I hadn't may shock you. Even reasons I hadn't considered before. But there's a lot of good reasons. I'm kidding, folks. But there's a lot of good reasons to to be in favor of the Electoral College. But you may have seen, so you know that in order to win the Electoral College, you have to get to 270 electoral votes, you may also know that it's possible, it is mathematically possible. And in fact, it's more possible in this election than what it's been in years past. But it is mathematically possible for there to be a 269 269 tie. And that's where you hear all this discussion of then what happens? Well, it goes to the House of Representatives. And I can hear republicans in this audience gasped when they realized that the Democrats have control in the house, but that's not exactly 100% correct in how this would be. The race would be determined. So it's based upon. So instead of, you know, majority, whether there's majority Democrats or Republicans in the House, it actually goes to the state, the state caucuses, so in other words, put another way, California is 53. Members of the House would get one vote. And so it's they're almost all Democrats. Not all of them, but almost all. And so but California would have one vote for Joe Biden. And when you look at which republican or which party has more states right now, there are some that are tied which is an interesting thing to think about, but I think it's 26 states have Republican majorities as of right now. But where this gets complicated is that this could end up going to the I think it actually does go to the next the next Congress if in fact, if in fact, this does not get resolved on election night, or in the days, weeks, heaven forbid, months after that. And this does go to Congress, which I'm not predicting, I'm just explaining to you that it's not simply who has you know, it's not a vote everywhere every member gets a vote, it's every state gets a vote. And those states, their votes are tallied, based upon the makeup of their they're called their state caucus, those members from their state who are members of the House of Representatives, that state gets one vote. And so as it stands today, Trump would still win if everything moves through the house in time. Now, if it doesn't, for some reason, if there's they can't get a majority, the 2626 states to say, pick Biden or Trump, then you get into this crazy nonsense. Where do you have to replace the President on January 20, that there's no clear replacement Nancy Pelosi, you hear talk about Pelosi being president interim president, that's where this kind of crazy stuff comes into play. I'm not predicting it. I'm just sharing, sharing this with you. But I want I want to draw your attention to something. want to draw your attention to something first and foremost, you'll see if you follow these Electoral College maps, that a lot of these outfits folks that basically, you know, you can go to these interactive maps on on the internet, and you can look and they'll start your map, they'll start your map with what they think is kind of the the floor. And Biden's electoral map starts at 292 90. Now, before you panic about that, before you panic about that, don't be tempted to scream at the universe of these radical leftists do before you panic about that, I should remind you, I think that Hillary started off at like 318, or some such thing back in 2000 2016. And that clearly wasn't the case. She was nowhere near that. In fact, it was almost the inverse of that we're trumping it up with almost that many. Anyway. But if you look at these, these states, and if you actually look at the Trafalgar group, which I'm going to talk about a little bit more detail in the next segment, the Trafalgar group who's been accurate, the most accurate polling firm in the past two elections, their polling shows us something much more a reasonable and be well, maybe I should say, Be reasonable and a appealing at where Trump is actually ahead in places like like Florida, or Trump is actually ahead in places like Arizona. And we're Trump may actually yet again, according to their polling eke out a victory in Michigan. And if you give Michigan and Arizona and Florida to Trump, suddenly, suddenly this map, I mean, I'm looking at it right now, it would show 274 or 275 electoral votes for Trump, which is, which is enough, but again, you just starting when you go to these places that where you can, you know, pick your own, you can put your own little Electoral College estimate together. The starting point at the one I'm looking at, and I've seen others like this as well, it's got Biden at 290 electoral votes, but it has Biden winning Michigan and has Biden winning Wisconsin is Biden winning Minnesota has has Biden winning, Pennsylvania. It has Biden winning Nebraska's second district. It has Biden winning Arizona and then in toss up states, it has Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa, which I would contend at this particular point in time looking at the polls for again from the Trafalgar group, I would say that, I mean, Florida is always tricky, but I think Trump's up two and a half points or some such thing in the Florida, Florida poll, and the Arizona poll, I think Trump is up four points and Trafalgar. So if you start picking these states, and factor in even as Biden campaign, the campaign is admitted that these national polls are the polling is skewed. They're not up as much as these polls seem to suggest. So that being The case as a telling me it's time to take a time? I don't know it is, it is. But we only been here before. We've been here before in 2016. And I would even contend that we're in better shape in 2020 than we were in 2016. I don't, by the way, buy into this whole, this isn't a horse race sort of thing. This isn't a, you know, we're making the final turn and heading down the back straightaway here. This is this is people have known who they're voting for. I think some of these research firms have just gotten it wrong. I think some of them have deliberately gotten it wrong. And I think when the dust settles, and I'm not predicting a Trump victory, though, that is absolutely possible. That's absolutely possible. And I would even say, it's, well, it made me slightly more than just average. And the possibility of that being the case, this, the whole thing is going to the whole pole, the whole numbers we're looking at is is definitely skewed to the left. And if I'm wrong, and I can be because again, people vote for presidents based upon the quality of their jump shot and how many people they make pass out at rallies and events was fortunately Biden can't do either one of those things. But this whole thing is skewed to the left. I think once the votes are counted, there's going to be a much different feel as to what this map looks like. And then they're going to start I'm telling you, they're going to start telling us how Trump has tried to disenfranchise voters, Republicans have tried to keep votes from counting. There's a whole bunch of stories on that as well. This mail, this mail, in mass vote by mail, in some of these states is disastrous, is totally disastrous. But I got to get a break. You're listening to conservative, not bitter talk. I'm your host, Todd Huff back here in back here in just a minute.
Welcome back. oz just showed me a image I can't get out of my head. Chris Wallace, a picture of Chris Wallace, his face with Savannah Guthrie's head. The things you find on social media. But look, I want to talk this this Thursday is debate number two is supposed to be debate number three, of course, but we didn't have debate number two because of COVID. Even though Trump tested negative for COVID. Trump is fine. Trump is healthier than ever up on stage, dancing and everything else. As we move, you know, ever so closer to the election day. Let's talk about this debate though. This debate is going to be moderated. moderated by NBC News reporter, Kristen Walker, Kristen Walker. Now Kristen Walker as well. First of all, when you know someone works at NBC News, when you know someone works at NBC News, you have to assume immediately, the odds they are voting for Biden or Hillary or anyone, anyone who's a Democrat, the odds are probably 90% 95% that he or she is going to vote for the Democratic candidate. There's just no, there's no other way about it. And so you know that from the beginning, but it's even worse than that she has deleted a Twitter account. And folks have taken screenshots from the from the Twitter account before it was taken down. So these thing actually, I think these things still come up if you google search some of them but she has posted. I mean, some very anti. They're anti Trump tweets. I mean, they're clearly anti Trump treat tweets. Now this incident look, journalism, as it's been said, is largely dead. Journalism, the the the true. The true field of journalism, there are a couple of people out there that actually know what it is. But once you account for them, and you can probably account for them or one one or two hands, then you're left with this reality that most most of what's left are nothing more but Then Then political activists, there are nothing more than activists, activists on in the media trying to persuade you, they're not there to try to give you information. They're not there to try to share with you what's going on. They're not there to provide both sides of the story. none, none. And no, do not be confused about this at all. They are there to persuade you, therefore, they are there to generate a certain outcome. And that is what they seek to do. Each and every day. Kristin Walker put her in that crash, she's deleted her Twitter, but it doesn't matter because people can still see these tweets. And I'm gonna find some of them after or during this next break and read those to you. I got him pulled up here somewhere. I've just got too big of I got too many things here that I wanted to, to get to. But you look at her Twitter and you look at you look at what she's done in the past. She actually told back in 2016. She told Jen Palmieri, who is Clinton, Hillary Clinton's was Hillary Clinton's campaign director. She told her the question she was going to ask her before she asked it. Now, it might not be uncommon in the media to say, hey, I want to talk with you about this. But it's not necessarily the way that I think most people would envision it working. If you told them, hey, a journalist said, I'm going to ask you this question, this question and this question, if that's the case, someone will say, what is this a democrat debate? Or is it a presidential debate where someone feeds the candidate that they want to see perform better? They want to they want to feed them the questions prior to prior to the debate, which happened, of course, back in 2016. Bernie voters out there today. If If you remember, if you remember, which I know you do. I know you do. They stole this, they had a plan to steal it. I mean, look, Hillary eventually cinch the thing up because of the super delegates, which again, were put in place so that they could correct the votes of anyone who wanted to vote for Bernie Sanders. But nonetheless, the plan was put in place to make sure Bernie didn't win this back in 16. And candidly, back in, well back this earlier this year, as well. And so now they've stopped Bernie twice. And one of the things they did was feed debate questions to Hillary Clinton, there's no they don't even deny this. Bernie didn't get them. But Hillary did. That's within their own party. What do you think, when you factor in the entire scope of what we're dealing with here, which is social media? Who is not wanting you to know the truth Google not wanting you to know the truth? If you don't believe me on that Google something that's damning to Democrats, Google it and then go to duck duck, go and search and tell me what the differences are. do this yourself, I encourage you to do this. DuckDuckGo is a competitive search engine to Google, do at some time, compare, compare and contrast the things that you've discovered? So you've got a dishonest media, a corrupt democrat party? An incredibly, I mean, corrupt candidate right now. We're not even allowed to ask the questions or get any answers. I mentioned. I hadn't heard the name tear read mentioned lately. But you factor in burries matterr. Tara Reed 47 years in Washington, DC you know, building massive amounts of wealth, while being quote unquote, a public servant. Using one's office to potentially allegedly Make sure your family gets opportunities in his in his enriched this these are the allegations, these are possible. We don't know all the details, because they don't want us to know that it doesn't look good, that's for sure. Right there, they're hiding the guy. teleprompters at events. oz mentioned that during the break, guys at these rallies, people sitting in their cars, there's like 18 cars and a teleprompter, the size of a outdoor movie theater, a drive in movie theater screen for Joe Biden to read the very uninspiring words. And now we've got a debate moderator who leans and doesn't lean. Who is 100% on the side of Joe Biden. That's coming out this week. We'll see that debate this Thursday. And the rumor is that Trump is going to, quote, give Biden space to talk this time, which may be the best thing possible, or the worst thing possible. For Biden The best thing possible for Trump so want to share some of these tweets that she is deleted from her Twitter account. When we get back, quick timeout is an order sit tight. be back in just a minute.
Welcome back, I should I should tell you that Christina Walker's Twitter account has been reactivated has been reactivated but I don't know, if all the tweets have been reactivated some of these tweets, I mean, look, she is clearly there's pictures of her and her father with the Obamas. at the, at the White House, again, like you can't being a journalist doesn't mean that you don't get a vote, right doesn't mean that you lose your ability to, you know, give to candidates. But is it is relevant, isn't it? Is it not? Is it not relevant to know who these folks are supporting and her family and her family and of course, her and her family may not have the same same beliefs. I laugh because she does. She was a registered Democrat in 2012. Now it's unknown what she what she is how she's how she's registered. But the point is, the point is that we have a situation where it's setting up to me there are anti Trump, I don't have time to get to these Oz's just shared with me the time that we're up against here. But there are there are some things that should at least cause us to raise our eyebrows about. Kristen Welker will try to post some of these on on our Facebook page today, some of these, these tweets that at least seem to be relevant to the discussion, right. I mean, it should be if she's out there tweeting things. As a journalist, again, if these folks would just understand that as journalists, their job is to report information not to make judgments on what they're talking about. They would go they would be a lot better off but they just refuse. refuse to do it. So, gotta take a break, come back and wrap up. You're listening to conservative, not bitter talk. I'm your host, Todd Huff back in just a minute.
All right, welcome back, folks. Here we are just a couple of days away from third. Well, actually, the second was supposed to be third debate, and we're still talking about the moderators. I mean, look, it shouldn't be the case where the moderators are the focus of the debate. Now I think Trump, of course is outwitting the media again here, by going after Kristen Walker talking about how much she's an anti Trump or how biased she is how she's been a registered Democrat, her family, donating money to Democrats and all this sort of stuff. He's putting all this attention on the debates, which is going to make more people want to watch this thing. And if what is being reported about Trump's I guess the way that Trump is going to handle himself here in the second debate, if those things are true, we're going to see Biden get more time to talk on interrupted and that is not. I mean, look, they've deliberately hidden their candidate. They've hidden their candidate for a long time. And so it's not I think, a good thing for the average voter to hear Joe Biden talk, especially, especially that late in the evening, especially given some of the things that we've heard him say on camera. Well, we don't really hear them because the media again, kind of hides that from us, but it's not good folks. It isn't good at all. So Trump is of course drawing attention to this. So we'll see how this pans out on Thursday. Trump is a master at drawing attention to things and that's an important debate and more importantly, we've got an important election, which is underway. I've got to go. Thanks for listening SDG. See tomorrow. Take care.