The Stack: Experts Got Iran Wrong Again
Foreign policy “experts” warned that a strike on Iran would ignite chaos across the Middle East. They predicted Iran’s Supreme Leader would be untouchable, terrorist proxies would launch a regional war, Israel would become isolated, and the United States would face global backlash.
None of that has happened.
In today’s Toddcast, Todd examines a Fox News op-ed highlighting how these predictions collapsed under real-world events. The strike that eliminated Iran’s Supreme Leader shattered the first assumption. Iran’s proxy forces—Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis—have largely stayed quiet rather than launching the feared regional war.
Meanwhile, some Arab nations have aligned against Iran rather than isolating Israel. The U.S. has also maintained strong operational control in the region.
Todd also discusses The White House timeline for achieving U.S. military objectives in Iran, the regime’s attempt to elevate a new supreme leader, and a House resolution reaffirming Iran as the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism.
The bigger question remains: if the experts were wrong about this, what else are they getting wrong?
🎧 Listen to Today’s Episode
📰 Stack Links
All 4 Iran war assumptions dead wrong — Trump proves experts got fooled again
53 Dems vote against resolution affirming Iran’s status as largest state sponsor
H.Res.1099 – Reaffirming Iran remains the largest state sponsor of terrorism
Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba chosen as Iran’s new supreme leader
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📝 Transcript: Experts Got Iran Wrong Again
The Todd Huff Show – March 9 , 2026
Host: Todd Huff
Todd Huff: My friends. I hope you had a wonderful weekend and it is good to be back at it here on this the 9th of March. Man, it is amazing how fast time goes. We're getting to the end of winter, which is. Listen, that's a big deal to me. I am a fan of spring, summer. Winter. Not so much, my friends. But looks like pucksutawney Phil has been really wrong on his prediction. But anyway, it's good to be here. Thank you for joining us. I want to talk today. I want to talk today about, well, there was an op ed at foxnews. Com talking about the things the experts predicted or feared would happen when we struck Iran. And those things have not materialized. And I want to get into this because I think it matters. In fact, you've heard me say on this program for some time, one of the most common headlines you'll see. One of the most common headlines you'll see. In media is experts wrong. Experts are wrong about everything. And that's not to say we shouldn't be trying to have experts. What that does mean is that we shouldn't just blindly trust the experts simply because they tell us something's going to be the case.
Todd Huff: In fact, there is. A logical fallacy. That people often employ. That's called an appeal to authority. And that's where you simply say you make some assertion in your argument. And as, I guess, the rationale or the underlying reasons for supporting that particular position, you would simply say. The people who know a lot said this is the truth, and that isn't how. Well, that's not how argumentation should happen. That's not how debate should happen. You should actually be able to explain it. And this is one of the things the Left never seeks to do. The Left never seeks to really explain anything. In fact, it's one of the reasons why the Left is so full of vitriol. Because my friends, because my friends, they have told people in their leftist little circles, that if you don't believe this certain thing, you're an idiot. You're the problem. You're someone who wants to overthrow America or subvert its democracy or whatever. That's how they do it. The name calling and all that stuff flows from this because they can't explain why. They cannot explain. Why.
Todd Huff: And so they launch into personal attacks. You believe what we tell you to believe. If not, you're stupid. That's how this goes. And then they ratchet it up from there. But the experts are wrong far too often. And the thing is, they're never held to account. I'm going to talk. About this today, because I think this matters, both in the Iranian conflict and in just the larger way that this sort of approach is used on the American people. Or the experts are completely wrong and they're never held to account, and we're told to trust them blindly the next time the experts tell us something and all that stuff. I want to go through that today as well as give you some updates. On what is happening in Iran, including the White Houses prediction here on when our objectives will be attained. Obtained in iraq. And then the new leader of the Iranian people has been named. Got a little bit about him, and we'll see what else we get. To my friends. Time permitting, here today.
Todd Huff: If you want the full scoop, the full background on today's show, all you've got to do. Is Join the Inner Circle is totally free. You'll get stuff emailed to you each and every weekday that has links to the stack of stuff that. Has articles and things that we haven't had time to get to on today's program. All you have to do is text the word truth. To 31785. 103-03-17785, 1030. Okay, all that being said, my friends, let's get squared away here as we prepare for liftoff here on this Monday morning. You know, one of the biggest challenges for conservatives like you, like me, is finding ways to ensure that our values align with the way that we live. Our lives, how we go about living the day to day, including how we invest our money.
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Todd Huff: Okay? So here we go. Let's reference here the article@fox news.com this is an opinion piece, an op ed piece. I'm gonna pull this bad boy up here because I closed it out a little bit earlier as I prepared for the program. Here we go. It's headline here. All for Iran War Assumptions dead wrong. Trump proves experts Got fooled again. It's written by Victoria Coates. It published early this morning. Operation Epic Fury reveals how Washington assumptions about Middle east conflicts don't match battlefield realities. So in the early days, she writes of Operation Epic Fury, while much remains unknown, one thing has become clear how little the conventional wisdom about foreign policy in Washington, D.C. has to do with the realities. Taking shape on the battlefield. Traditionally, four things were assumed to be inevitable if the United States and or Israel were to take significant military action against Iran.
Todd Huff: So here they are. Number one, Iran's supreme leader would be untouchable. 2 the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Would deploy its terrorist proxies to ignite a regional war. Number three, Israel would be isolated in the Middle east and vulnerable to attack from Arab neighbors. And number four, the United States would be isolated on the world stage. And limited in what it can do or could do to support Israel, which would benefit Russia and China. As she writes here, all four assumptions are dead wrong. So let's pause really quickly. This is the name of the game, right? So you have people, and this is good. Well, in theory, this is good. You have people. In military. Military positions. People who are tasked with understanding the threats. Right. We have, like it or not, we have war plans for all sorts of scenarios. We play these scenarios out from time to time. We make assumptions. If there are to be conflicts, there have to be.
Todd Huff: There are advanced modeling techniques that would show what the enemy might do and then what would happen if the enemy took. Those reactionary steps. So, for example, United States strikes Iran. In their nuclear capabilities, then there's assumptions that are made that these are the things Iran would do and things are tied to probabilities, and you begin to get this scenario, what happens if this happens and all that. So this stuff has played out repeatedly. And this is good. This is necessary. This is one of the things we talked about late last week. Peace through strength. We have to be prepared. For any. Possible scenario. We have to be prepared for those. Now, just because something. Is possible does not mean it is likely.
Todd Huff: In fact, there's some things that have very low probabilities approaching. Virtual impossibility. But they certainly can still happen. But what you want people who are figuring out what could happen, understand? So that we can stay a step ahead of the opposition, so that we know that we're strategically prepared for what sorts of things the anime might do. And it starts with an assessment on certain things. The first point here that she writes about is that the Iran supreme Leader would be untouchable. He was taken out. Ali Khamenei was taken out in one of the very first strikes. So that is obviously an incorrect assessment.
Todd Huff: We do know. We do know that he was protected. Very well. But we also know that maybe they let their guard down when they thought the Israelis were taking the day off, so to speak, for their Sabbath. They know how deeply devout the Israelis are. Saturday, of course, is the Sabbath for the Jewish people. And so they might have gotten a little bit overly confident, I don't know. But that's certainly the result, is that he's no longer here. So he's not untouchable, especially with some of the weapons and technology. We have some of the intelligence, the ways that we have of gathering. When I say we, I'm referring to the United States Israeli coalition. That's dealing with this problem in spite of the rabid anti Semitism that comes from extreme factions here in the United States. But we have the capability of monitoring these people. I've told you how highway or street cameras had been effectively. Hacked by Israeli intelligence. So they had eyes on some of those cameras. Probably, gee whiz, some high technology with drones. Probably some human intelligence, who knows what all we had. But we knew where he was and we could take him out when the moment was right. He was not untouchable.
Todd Huff: Number two, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would be deployed. Excuse me, would deploy its terrorist proxies. To ignite a regional war. Now, we spent some time talking about this late last week as well. Iran has terrorist proxy armies. What does that mean? Well, terrorism is when a group is using intimidation. Through the force or. The threat of the use of force to get people to politically comply with its wishes. That's the definition of terrorism. It requires that you're using the. Using violence or the threat of violence. To get a political outcome. That you want. And so that's what these terrorist organizations do. You either. Whatever. Stop. Say bombarding. Hamas locations in Gaza or will fire missiles at Tel Aviv and wherever else. Right. That's the way that this goes. It's what happened, of course, to the United States on 9 11.
Todd Huff: They wanted to see the United States not have military bases in Saudi Arabia. They wanted the United States, the Al Qaeda terrorist organization, wanted to see the United States submit to Islam, to, you know, to abandon our Western roots and to embrace Sharia law and so forth. And so that's what terrorism is. A proxy is a group that basically, I guess we said on Friday, Thursday or Friday of last week, it's an army here. Who isn't technically your army in Iran, the Iranian army. It's controlled by or funded by or at least influenced by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran. And so people thought that when the United States or Israel, both of us, launched this attack, that they would then get those terrorist proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and others to ignite a regional war and to basically go after Israel in particular. That leads to number three here. Israel would be isolated in the Middle East. And vulnerable to attack from its Arab neighbors.
Todd Huff: We already know. Israel has historically been hated by a lot of these Muslim majority countries in the Middle East. The Israel has faced hatred from places around the world and there's no shortage of hatred for the nation of Israel. Israel is not a perfect nation, just like any other nation on the face of the planet. But most of the hatred for Israel stems from people's hatred of God and the Bible. Not all of it, because you can certainly point to flaws and mistakes and so forth from Israel. But in the grand scheme of things, Israel is not an evil empire. Israel has. Israel has done good. Israel, if you look at the nation of Israel and you look at. A beacon of hope in that region. Israel is certainly that. Israel is not the problem. In that region. But there were fears that by launching an attack on Iran that Israel would be isolated and maybe even targeted by some of its Arab neighbors. That has not happened either. Number four, thankfully, by the way.
Todd Huff: Number four, the United States would be isolated on the world stage and limited in what it could do to support Israel. Which would benefit Russia and China. A couple things on this Number one, You can throw all the playbooks out the window when you have Donald J. Trump at the helm. Now, I'm saying that without even. You don't have to be even a fan of Trump. I think to acknowledge that. Donald trump is. A wild card. He doesn't play by the traditional rules. He, of course, plays by his own set of rules. He's not going to be predictable. In fact, as we shared last week, one of the things he said even during his presidential campaign was, I'm not going to tell you. How I'm going to respond to some of these problems. Why would I say what I would do? To Iran here in the media, all they have to do is flip on the news or read a story and see what I've said. I'm not going to tell you what we're going to do. That would be stupid of me to do it. I want them to not know what we're going to do.
Todd Huff: And that, by the way, is the way we should treat. Our geopolitical foes around the globe. If you've ever read the Art of War by Sun Tzu, I would encourage you to do that. War, at its core, is often about deception. When you're weak, you try to appear strong. When you're strong, you try to appear weak. When you're saying, we're not going to attack as precisely. When you're trying to attack, you're trying to keep your enemy guessing. And there was an element of that deception. Head faking here that led up to this again when they pretended. Remember I read an article last week that said the military leadership in Israel. They had pictures and videos of them going home for the Sabbath or whatever. But then they came back in disguise to prepare to launch this attack. That's what's been employed here.
Todd Huff: But the United States hasn't been isolated on the world stage. In fact, some of our weaker European allies are. Well, they were against this. And now in the case of. The British government. They're now wanting to send their own aircraft carriers to the region, by the way. If you didn't see this. I'm going to tell you really quickly. It's not in the stack of stuff. I don't think it is. But I did see an article, maybe late last week or early sometime over the weekend. That Trump told the British government, look, we don't need you to show up now. The war is won. We don't need just showing up and looking for your photo ops and all this. You guys weren't in favor of us doing this? You weren't involved. We didn't need you. Don't show up now for the photo op and for the press coverage mentioning you and your enrollment here.
Todd Huff: Israel. We in Israel. Collectively. We took care of it. You guys stay over there. And just. Control the crash that your country is going through, as you're radically allowing some really bad things to happen over there. Just go ahead and manage your decline. We'll take care of the problems. On the world stage. But none of these things to the author's point here. Again, Victoria Coates, Ms. Fox News piece. She says all four assumptions are dead wrong. Obviously, the supreme leader was not untouchable. We talked about that. She references the organizing. Well, the succession meeting that was organized on March 3, which was targeted. We talked about that last week as well.
Todd Huff: She said. In addition, the predicted mass regional attack on Israel has not materialized because of Iran's disastrous decision to launch missiles against its neighbors, even those who had been acting as its mediator, such as Qatar. And Oman, the region has unified, not against Israel, but against Iran. So to her point, the Iranian leadership, who knows, who knows whether they miscalculated it, whether they were just confused in a fog of war, they lost their leadership. Maybe this was the plan all along, but they miscalculated the impact that this would have they started launching missiles against people in the region. And instead of this causing there to be organized hatred, unified hatred against Israel, it basically solidified that people were now upset with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Todd Huff: She writes here, there are reports of Arab nations potentially participating in the strikes on Iran. The Abraham Accords, she writes, although under strength since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, have held. So none of these dire predictions have come true. Iran's terrorist proxies, rather than rising up to attack Israel, she writes, had been remarkably inactive, given their patron's desperate straits. Hamas and Gaza has been all but silent. Hezbollah in Lebanon has fired some rockets, but nothing like the overwhelming barrage of precision guided missiles that was once feared. The Houthi in Yemen have struck to threats rather than attacks. None of them appear to be interested in a multi front war. Against the combined might of the us and israel.
Todd Huff: Combined might? The us and israel have demonstrated. So there you go. That's what's happening. And it's worth thinking about this for a moment. How are we here? Why are we here? And why are the experts always so wrong? My friends, we'll talk about that in due course, but I've got to take a break. My friends, have you ever felt like the insurance deck is stacked against you? Premiums go up, coverage goes down, and when disaster strikes, you're left proving your case to someone. Who's never even seen your home. And let's be honest, they've often got a vested interest in paying as little as possible.
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Todd Huff: Quicktime. Out my friends. Back in just a minute. Welcome back, my friends. Not only have all the experts been wrong on. Well, how things would shape up in the Iranian conflict. And listen, I. Don't want to too harsh in my assessment of this. And again, I'm referencing here what was written about in the Op Ed piece that we've been referencing or talking about here this morning. I understand these things are hard to predict, but the United States, our capabilities, the decisiveness. Of our leadership. The technology, the command, the intelligence, the weaponry. The technological advantages we have, human intelligence, all this stuff. It's consistently underestimated. Underestimated.
Todd Huff: And the assessments were wrong. And that's. Listen again. I don't want to beat up on the people that do this. I simply want to acknowledge that they were wrong. And not only were they wrong, The White House is out there saying that the Iranian war goals are achievable within the next four. To six weeks. And this matters. This matters a lot. For a lot of reasons and will continue to talk about this. But the theme here, we don't do themes, but. The underlying theme here is that. The experts were wrong. And if they're wrong about this, what else are they wrong about?
Todd Huff: There's nothing wrong with being cautious. There's nothing wrong. About making sure you understand the risks, the negative impacts that are potentially possible, and all these sorts of things. You certainly. Certainly should stay aware and apprised of those things. But when we get into the position where. We are just repeatedly wrong. And what the experts tell us are wrong. We should try to understand that as well. Because you don't want to be making decisions. Based upon. Estimates. Or predictions that are the worst case scenario by 10. And that appears to be what we've had here when it came to the real threat of fighting with Iran on this.
Todd Huff: So article at Breitbart. Of course, you'll find this everywhere, lots of other places as well, as far as the expectations. But again, if you want the links to this, the background for today's show and for every show, simply text TRUTH to 317785, 1030 and you'll be subscribed to the Inner Circle, and you'll get that stuff every day. But breitbart here. Breitbart here is writing about the White House saying that there are war goals will be achievable in four to six weeks. So the administration has reported that the US war objectives could be achieved in the next four to six weeks. They sided operational progress. United States is gaining. Control has gained control of Iranian airspace. Iranian military capabilities are being degraded. There's military objectives that have been described here, the destruction of nuclear program infrastructure, the destruction of missile capabilities, weakening Iranian military command structures.
Todd Huff: And on top of that, US Officials. Have been reviewing potential candidates to lead Iran after the conflict. Now pause for a moment. Because the Islamic Republic of Iran has selected a new leader, Mushtaba Khamenei. He's the son of Ali Khamenei, and he has been selected to be Iran's next supreme leader. Of course, Trump says this is completely unacceptable. Got a little bit of background here on him. He's the second son of the former, emphasis on former here. Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei. He is a Shia cleric that's been educated in the Qom seminary. He's had political influence in the area. He's operated inside of the office of the Supreme Leader. He's reportedly controlled access to his father. And he's known more as a behind the scenes political power broker than an out in the front and out in the open later.
Todd Huff: He has close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He has been associated with the Besiege paramilitary organization. He had a role during the 2009 protests. Iranian opposition figures accused him of helping coordinate the regime's response to the Green Movement. Protests. He was sanctioned by the United States in 2019 as part of sanctions targeting Iran's supreme leaders. In her circle. He's considered, shockingly here, a hardliner within the Iranian clerical establishment. He's seen by analysts as closely aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Some Iranian clerics. Have been critical of him succeeding his father. The critics argue that it would be. It would resemble hereditary secession inside the Islamic Republic, which, of course, is what this is.
Todd Huff: But nonetheless, he doesn't give a lot of speeches. He doesn't give media interviews or many media interviews, which is what I was trying to spit out there. Known mostly again, for what he does. Behind the scenes influencing the regime. But Trump says this isn't going to work. This isn't going to be the leader that we work with. And so we're looking to continue the bombardment until there is basically the government is overthrown or it collapses. That is the hope. And that's why there is this appeal to the Iranian people who have been eagerly desiring their ability to break free from this brutal regime. This brutal regime, and hopefully they are capable of doing that.
Todd Huff: That's what needs to happen there. This government needs to be completely replaced. And the guy that's running the show here, who they think is running this show here, who, of course, is the, in many ways, the heir apparent to Ali Khamenei, the individual, the former supreme leader that we took. Out recently with strikes. This isn't going. This isn't going to work. This isn't going to work. So the United States, though, is well on track. To hitting its military objectives. And to continue to weaken. This regime so that eventually, hopefully, it either falls under its own weight or it is overrun, overtaken. And replaced by people in Iran.
Todd Huff: Of course, as I said late last week, Trump says we still want a say in that. And certainly I think that that's reasonable. What I don't want and what I was coming at against earlier last week is all out regime change. And then, well, the regime needs change, but regime change to the point where we're hand selecting these folks. And forcing that upon the people of Iran, that doesn't work. But it is very fair and reasonable to say that the United States should have a hand in this, especially since the United States is one of the countries that is making this possible. US and, of course, Israel.
Todd Huff: So that's what's happening there. The House is also passed. The House of Representatives here in the US has passed a resolution. House Resolution 1099. And I want to talk about that here in just a moment, but. Going to take a brief time out, my friends. And remind you Remind you just a little bit. About some friends of ours here on the Todd Huff Show, Christopher's Organic Botanicals. Friends, if you're dealing with discomfort or you're tired of living off prescriptions and managing the side effects, you are not alone. A lot of folks are looking for something natural they can trust.
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Todd Huff: Welcome back, my friends. How could you be against this resolution? I mentioned before the break. House Resolution 1099. Reaffirming Iran as the largest state sponsor of terrorism. Again, if you want the receipts on this, if you want the background on this, this and other things that we discussed on the program, text TRUTH to 317785, 1030, and you'll get the Inner Circle emailed to you daily with that information. So the resolution that was passed in the how it passed in the House of Representatives, it passed pretty handily, but there were 53 Democrats who voted against this. But this resolution reaffirmed that Iran remains the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world. And in fact, if you read this very short resolution, it's just two pages, I believe.
Todd Huff: It cites specific groups in the resolution. Its cites Hezbollah, it cites Hamas, it cites Houthi forces in Yemen. It cites Iranian backed militias operating, operating in Iraq. Operating in syria. It also notes that Iranian backed militias have been linked to the deaths of hundreds of US Troops in Iraq. That is a fact. Fact. One of the things that we hit on last week. We talked about the number of American troops who were killed by. Effectively Iran. If you follow the money and you follow the weaponry, it takes you right back to the Islamic Republic of Iran. They created many of the IEDs. They of course funded these terror organizations that were operating Iranian backed militias operating in Iraq. And Syria. Hundreds of deaths of U.S. troops in Iraq died because they were funded by Iranian backed, well funded by Iran through these backed militias.
Todd Huff: So the resolution passed with strong bipartisan support. There were Democrats who voted against it, but there were some who. Excuse me, that voted in favor of it, but there were some who voted against it. In fact, 53 voted against this. In fact. Let me pull up the article here just so I have the details in front of me. This is@just the news.com. you can, of course, find this in many other places, but this is where I source the information. Today, 53 DIMS vote against resolution affirming Iran's status as Iran's, excuse me, as the largest state sponsor of terrorism.
Todd Huff: 53 House Democrats on Thursday voted against a resolution to reaffirm Iran's status as the largest state sponsor of terrorism. By the way, this was a373.53 vote. And there were Democrats and Republicans who voted in favor of this resolution. But there's 53 lunatics that won't vote for this. By the way, nothing in this that is not accurate. It is completely accurate. In fact, if anything, they probably could have included more examples of the evils of Iran when it comes to the sponsoring of state terrorism against and by the way, groups that not just. Our terrorist organizations. That's bad enough, but they are organizations that have been targeting the United States of America, fighting against our troops, targeting our country, targeting our allies. Really, really dark and evil stuff.
Todd Huff: There's 53. 53 people in the House of Representatives who voted no against that. Now, some of these folks have come out and said, look, we voted no on this because this resolution is what is being used by the administration. To pursue war in Iran. But that may be the case. But surely we should all. Whether it's. Those are two different conversations, right? The first is a resolution to say, this is what we're dealing with. And we had to come to grips with that. Even if. Even if. That defining the way of defining the enemy here or Iran in this case. Even if defining them is then used for a next step that you disagree with, surely we should all be able to come to the truth.
Todd Huff: And accept this for what it is. Too many times we try to realize, well, that's going to lead us into that particular justification for this war. So I don't want to acknowledge what's clearly the case. This is clearly the case. I think the Democrats who voted against this didn't want to admit it's the case, because once you recognize that this is the case, the case for. In iraq. Is much, much harder. To defend. It's much, much harder to, I guess I would say. To make an argument against because this is a state sponsor of terrorism that's been used. Against the united states.
Todd Huff: So lots of developments, my friends, when it comes to Iran and what's happening there. And so that's all the time I've got today to get into this. Friends, let's be honest. When your financial world starts getting a little more complicated, you need more than one size fits all advice. That's where full suite wealth shines. The brightest or team specializes in working with families and individuals at your level, offering personalized guidance that goes far beyond the basics. From private equity and private credit to options strategies and coordinated legal planning. Full Suite wealth helps you see the big picture, make confident decisions about your legacy.
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